On the pages of Duma daily (the Bulgarian Socialist Party newspaper) I saw recently two intriguing articles. Intriguing not content-wise, but headline-wise. One was "Their defeat and our victory are equally inescapable," the second - "Sense instead of emotion," subtitled "Will the largest party in Bulgaria allow itself to fall behind Simeon (Saxe-Coburg, leader of National Movement Simeon II) and Ivan Kostov (leader of the United Democratic Forces)?"

The content is clear. Bulgaria is facing elections, and the newspaper, true to its party duty, is trying to encourage and mobilize the BSP's members and hardcore supporters. To the average Bulgarian citizen, periodically raised in position and courted as a voter, those headlines are multi-meaningful. They bring back memories of the "inescapable victory of world revolution" and for the just as inescapable collapse of "rotten capitalism." Looking at the subtitle with sense instead of emotion, we have to acknowledge that actually it is the only important and true one - as long as we replace the initial "will" with "why."

The BSP is probably the largest of the three major political forces in Bulgaria. The movement around Saxe-Coburg, which hastily gathered artists, yuppies, journalists, businessmen, and a few monarchists, could not be called a party even by a person with a grand imagination. They are united not by ideas, but by the chance to enter power without major effort. We can only hope that they truly believe in their declarations and that they will rule better than their predecessors. Things are much better with Kostov. The Union of Democratic Forces (UDF) proclaimed itself a party, organizationally structured itself, and even put itself in the political arena as a "rightist-centrist Christian-democratic party." One day, when its members learn and realize what that actually means, the UDF will finally become a party.

The BSP members, apart from being the largest group, are definitely organized and supporters of specific ideas. True, to most of them the ideology has frozen on the "it was better during socialism" level. Knowledge is little, but convictions are firm.

This is where the "why" question appears. Why will the largest party in Bulgaria not win the elections?

There is an old joke, about somebody who was dreaming: "Circus. In the centre - a huge balloon. The balloon is rising high under the circus dome, and explodes; and everybody gets covered in manure. Then the lights switch on, and there I enter - all dressed in white." The spring is here, and elections are nearing - the season of hopes has begun. The balloon of the two-party political system exploded and Simeon appeared - all dressed in white. He put out a simple message: "Trust me." He collected the votes of those that until yesterday did not believe in the possibility for change through elections and reached for the votes of the shaken supporters. Because hope dies last.

A true but primitive analysis. Simeon's movement is gathering the most votes, but not with action - with inaction instead. Not with ideas - with lack of comment instead. Simeon's power until the elections is in his silent presence. He only gathers fruits that fall in his hands themselves. The true question is what the parties in Bulgaria did and did not do in order to reach this situation.

After ruling from the backstage, the BSP decided it was time for a successful left ruling. The "[Zhan] Videnov" government appeared - a weird mixture of Comsomol (young communist league) enthusiasm and Stalinist suspicion. The end is remembered [nation-wide strikes, government resigned, early elections brought to power the first non-socialist government, led by Kostov]. Then the new BSP leadership took it upon itself to turn the "modern left" into a social-democratic party. The only visible result from the BSP's four years of work in this direction is putting NATO accession on the party's election program.

During the Kostov government's mandate the BSP leadership was engaged mostly in navel gazing. The largest opposition party put behind its role of constructive opposition and forgot its obligation to be the alternative of the ruling party. For four years things followed a simple plan - do not do anything, and consequently do not make mistakes. The main part of this plan was the idea that the UDF is ruling and consequently they are failing, and elections are coming and the BSP wins, because in Bulgaria votes are given not "for" but "against."

The fatal mistakes of social democracy have been known since the beginning of last century - bureaucracy, centralism, and turning its leaders into a new class which is gradually separated from the interests of the working class. These reached absurd dimensions during "real socialism" times. We continue seeing them - for more than 10 years after 1989, including during the UDF leadership. Mistakes transferred from party life into country management.

Power wears people out. The longer a party is in power, the more it hardens and leans on "old tried success recipes." The time for generating new ideas is while a party is in opposition. The BSP has wasted this opportunity every time. They've wasted it at times when the European political parties were searching for new identities, when turbulent changes happened under the influence of globalization and postindustrial society development, and when new solutions were sought in the major priorities - EU and NATO accession.

June 17 is nearing. After that, the BSP will again have time for thought, new organizational work, and preparation for new elections. I hope they use it wisely.

Zvezdelin Lalov is a former Bulgarian diplomat who has served in Congo (Kinshasa), Congo (Brazzaville) and Guinea. He is currently a lecturer at Sofia University on diplomatic practice.