Fri, Feb 10 2012

Recession concern looms

Thu, Sep 13 2001 15:00 CET 470 Views
Tuesday's terrorist attack on one of the biggest symbols of capitalism worldwide, the World Trade Centre, caused panic on the international markets, and fears of an economic downturn passed through Bulgaria as well.

Reacting to the strike against the world's leading economic power, investors decided to put their money in safe assets like oil, gold and other metals.

The world's major central banks issued statements saying they stood ready to act to counter any potential market turmoil, but expectations of severe damage to confidence in the U.S. economy sent investors into traditional assets. The price of gold went up on Tuesday by more than $10 to reach $287 in late London trading.

Dealers said the attack presented no immediate threat to world oil supplies but they said investors were turning to the oil market anyway because of market uncertainties and the lure of commodities during times of international crises. On Tuesday, the price of crude oil was up by $5, but the next day it returned to normal levels.

In Bulgaria, the news coming from the U.S. had a smaller effect. The only thing that bothered investors and traders was the price of the U.S. dollar. After starting the day at 2.18 leva, the dollar slipped down to 2.13 leva late in the afternoon on Tuesday. The Bulgarian lev is tied to the euro, which did not benefit much from the dollar problems.

Exchange bureaus in Sofia put up very diverse dollar-lev exchange rates in the wake of the slump on the international financial markets, the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA) reported. Most of them opened on Wednesday with a buying exchange rate of 2.05 leva and a selling rate of 2.15 leva, which then reached 2.13 and 2.15-2.16 respectively, but there were also exchange rates of 2.30 and 2.25.

Some of the bureaus that worked late Tuesday night bought the dollar at 2.00 leva and sold it at 2.15 leva due to information about the downturn on the international markets. People queued late that night to buy cheapening dollars or exchange their dollars for Deutsche marks expecting a further downturn, BTA said.

"Everything was so confusing. First everyone thought it was wrong information or something, but then when the news started coming from the U.S., we realized that this is the beginning of a crisis," said Ivaylo Kolev, an analyst at Bulbrokers, one of the largest Bulgarian investment intermediaries. According to him, the Bulgarian market, like the rest of the world's markets, is now in a sort of short-term hibernation, waiting for news from the United States on what is going to happen.

There are mainly two things that could influence the economic situation in Bulgaria - the price of oil and the exchange rate of the dollar against the euro. However, Wednesday showed that any major fluctuations will not be observed, because the world markets were becoming more and more calm.

The Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and U.S. Federal Reserve have announced that they are prepared to act against any possible downturn of the dollar. No one was reported to be hurrying to get rid of U.S. dollars and exchange them for any other currencies on Wednesday afternoon.

According to Kolev, investors will start looking for safer places to put their money, or safer assets, such as gold. "We had the shock impact yesterday. Now we're moving on to the next phase, which is a genuine worry about recession.''

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