Almost half of the people who will cast a vote on November 11 would support incumbent president Petar Stoyanov, a poll conducted by the National Public Opinion Centre (NPOC) released on Monday showed. The poll was taken between October 10 and 15 among 1,486 respondents.

Stoyanov would get 49.9 per cent of the ballots while one of his major opponents, leader of the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) Georgi Purvanov would receive the support of 11.5 per cent of voters. Bogomil Bonev would get 6.3 per cent, and two per cent would cast a vote for former caretaker prime minister Reneta Indjova.

Representatives of the NPOC explained that the results of the poll concerning Indjova were not very indicative because of the later start of her pre-election campaign. Indjova had to wait until the Movement for Rights and Freedoms announced they would support her.

The tandem George Ganchev-Vesselin Bonchev of the George Ganchev Block would get 1.4 per cent. The couple Petar Beron-Stoyan Andreev, supported by Union Bulgaria, would win 0.3 per cent of the votes.

A little over 28 per cent of those eligible to vote are undecided on whom to support. One fifth are positive that they would not cast a ballot on November 11. Although the NPOC poll shows that 60 per cent will vote, social analysts expect a turnout lower than 50 per cent.

Such a situation will take the top two presidential candidates of the first round to a second round of voting. According to the Bulgarian Constitution the winner of the presidential elections is the candidate who has gathered at least 50 per cent plus one of the ballots, provided that 50 per cent plus one of eligible Bulgarians vote. The previous two presidential elections in Bulgaria, in 1992 and 1996, were decided in a second round.

In case a runoff election takes place, the figures in the NPOC survey show that Stoyanov would be victorious in the second round. He would beat Purvanov by 76 to 24 per cent, Bonev by 72 to 28 per cent, and Indjova by 80 to 20 per cent.

Two weeks after the National Movement Simeon II (NMSII) announced its support for Petar Stoyanov's candidacy, half of the respondents in the poll said that the outcome of the elections is predetermined. Mostly the social elites and the electorate of the United Democratic Forces and NMSII share this view.

The voters, however, do not mean the same by "predetermined elections" as politicians and analysts, Lidia Yordanova of NPOC said. According to Yordanova, politicians are saying that the elections lack competitive character, while the public feel that Stoyanov is ahead of the other contenders by such a wide margin that catching up with him is next to impossible.