Bulgaria's tourist count in 2006 stood at 4.36 million, a 45.8 per cent increase since 2002. This has brought smiles to many faces. Much of the credit goes to the promotional efforts of hoteliers and travel agencies in tandem with the Bulgarian State Agency for Tourism (SAT).

Despite the importance of destination market research and a plethora of studies in other Eastern European countries, not much has been forthcoming regarding Bulgaria.
To that end, tourism specialist Stanislav Ivanov and Craig Webster of the University of Nicosia, Cyprus, decided to look into the various aspects that influence people's decisions to visit the Balkan country. These include purchasing power, European Union membership, visa requirements, communist heritage, the presence of a Bulgarian embassy abroad and Orthodox Christian heritage.

Specifically, they sought to identify the role played by travel and leisure fairs. "Anecdotal evidence has it that active participation in tourism trade fairs is the most direct way of boosting tourist numbers," said Ivanov, who also sits as editor of the Bulgarian-based European Journal of Tourism. "We wanted to quantify that."

The team got the relevant data from the United Nations Development Programme's 2005 Human Development Report, the CIA's World Fact Book and the Bulgarian National Statistical Institute. They then correlated the number of tourist arrivals by country over the period of 2000 to 2005, and 2005 alone with the different factors.

The results partially confirmed their assumptions: attendance at travel fairs by the BSAT does generate more visitors. This was backed by a similar study in the case of Spain by Eduardo Fayos-Sola of the UN World Tourism Organization. His explanation was that a destination country's presence at fairs educated and illuminated tourism professionals and the public about the prospect country, thus providing them with greater holiday options.

Ivanov and Webster calculated that on average, each travel fair attended between 2000 to 2005 (for a total of 215) generated an additional 11 000 visitors to Bulgaria, a sizeable return on investment. They were not, however, able to determine whether this stemmed from a long-term, cumulative effect, or by influencing prospects right before they decided where to spend their vacation.

A look at SAT statistics also revealed a rather uneven pattern of fairs distribution: 18 per cent in Germany, per cent per cent in Russia, and five per cent each in the UK and Ukraine, while none occurred in Norway or the US, rich countries that provided only 67 159 and 49 568 visitors, respectively, in 2005.

As it happened, fair attendance was the second most-decisive factor. The biggest for Bulgaria, as Ivanov put it, was "the accident of geography". This meant that being a neighbouring country made it more likely than anything else that citizens from there would come over, as evidenced by the recent surge of Greek and Romanian tourists.

"Proximity is tied to travel costs and convenience," said Ivanov, "meaning that Bulgaria tends to attract less wealthy visitors."

There were unexpected findings as well. According to the authors, none of the other variables yielded significant effects. EU membership and visa systems, for example, had no bearings: Bulgaria receives many tourists from outside the union and/or countries requiring visas, such ex-Soviet republics, Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey and Israel. However, as Bulgaria and Romania have only recently joined the EU, its long-term ramifications have yet to fully materialise.

Webster also believes that the presence of national tourism offices abroad helps draw in visitors. He based this on research he had conducted involving Cyprus. But this was not factored into the Bulgarian study as the BSAT had only opened its first office in 2006 in Germany.

Along with implementing or at least considering their findings, Ivanov recommends that in attracting a wider clientele, Bulgarian tourism needs to expand what it has on offer, moving beyond the conventional "sand, sea and sun" package which is both seasonally and geographically restrictive. He points out that the recent developments in golf, alpine, health, rural, cultural and ecological tourism are steps in the right direction.

Finally Ivanov suggests that the SAT upgrade and enhance its official website, www.bulgariatravel.org. "Its central theme should be more about marketing the destination than a particular product. Still the site should host more tourist resources and information on activities, culture, history, services and contacts, along with a newsletter, forum and travel updates."