Macedonia on the eve of campaigns for March 22 elections

Sat, Nov 21 2009

Sun, Mar 01 2009 11:37 CET byClive Leviev-Sawyer 2471 Views 18 Comments

1 of 1

Macedonia on the eve of campaigns for March 22 elections

Prime minister Nikola Gruevski votes during Macedonia's troubled June 2008 elections

For Macedonia, a great deal rides on its March 22 2009 presidential elections – much more than just the choice of a new head of state and municipal mayors and councillors.

The June 2008 parliamentary elections in the country that returned prime minister Nikola Gruevski to power were marred by violence, allegations of vote fraud, and ethnic tension.

A number of European leaders have made it clear that they want to see the 2009 elections conducted peacefully if Skopje is to see its hopes of European integration progress any further.

As it is, these hopes are already imperilled by Skopje’s prolonged dispute with Athens over the use of the name "Macedonia", a row that has blocked Macedonia’s chances of joining Nato while similarly Greece has said it will stand in the way of its neighbour’s EU ambitions unless the dispute is resolved.

On March 1 2009, in an apparent response to external pressure for peaceful elections, Gruevski brought together the leaders of political parties for the second time in a week to discuss aspects of the elections in the hope of ensuring that voting passes without incident.

Those attending the meetings included leaders of Gruevski’s Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation – Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE), the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM), Democratic Union for Integration (DUI) and Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA).

Gruevski’s party, a centre-right entity that has formed an election campaign coalition with 18 smaller parties, has nominated law professor Georgi Ivanov to be president. Opinion polls indicate that Ivanov is likely to win.

The other major presidential candidate is Ljubomir Frckovski, a professor nominated by the centre-left SDSM. The SDSM is the successor of the League of Communists of Macedonia, which ruled the country for the decades it was a constituent republic within Yugoslavia.

The remaining five other presidential candidates are Ljube Boshkovski (independent), Nano Ruzin (Liberal-Democratic Party), Agron Budzaku (Democratic Union of Integration), Mirushe Hodza (Democratic Party of Albanians, and Imer Selmani (New Democracy).

An AFP report said that former interior minister Boskovski was a former war crimes suspect. He was released from the Hague-based International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in July 2008.

The tribunal’s prosecutors are appealing after the court found him not guilty of warcrimes charges allegedly committed during the 2001 ethnic Albanian insurgency in Macedonia. Boskovski is still on trial in a Croatian court, charged with having ordered the murder of seven South Asian immigrants in Macedonia in 2002.

The job of president of the country, which has a population estimated last year at just more than two million, is open because current incumbent Branko Crvenkovski will not be seeking another term. The largely ceremonial post has a five-year term with a two-term limit.

There is no clear indication that the March 22 presidential elections will produce a decisive result, meaning more than 50 per cent of the votes cast, in which case there will be a runoff on April 5. According to Macedonia media reports, quoting the state electoral commission, about 1.7 million people are eligible to vote.

A poll in late February, reported by Balkan Insight, said that balkan insight -- Georgi Ivanov had more than 30.5 per cent support. Imer Selmani, the head of the newly formed ethnic Albanian party New Democracy, took a surprise second place on the poll with almost 18.8 per cent of popular support, leaving Frckovski third with 15.6.

Concern about potential violence and electoral abuses looms large, although in a February 2009 report, a Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly (PACE) delegation that visited Macedonia said that it had noted that the country had taken steps to implement recommendations drafted to prevent a repeat of the June 2008 problems.

"However, the pre-electoral delegation deeply regrets that, since June 2008, not all those responsible for the acts of violence and electoral fraud have yet been identified and brought to justice," the delegation said.

"Modifying existing laws is not enough. A change in legislation should be supported by the clear will of all political actors – both the political parties and the different communities of the country – to create a climate of confidence."

The delegation expressed concern regarding the accuracy of the register of voters.

The delegation welcomed the fact that, during the meetings with the delegation, all seven presidential candidates agreed to participate in public television debates during the election campaign.

However, several Macedonian media reports have highlighted that it was unclear whether there would be an Ivanov – Frckovski debate.

On February 25, Macedonian daily Utrinski Vesnik said that the question of whether there would be an Ivanov – Frckovski debate had become the central issue of the campaign. Ivanov said that he would agree to a debate only if his rival withdrew insulting statements made in his newspaper columns. The previous, Macedonian media reports said that Ivanov wanted a formal apology.

The debate about a debate did not seem an auspicious start, as signals were received – reportedly and anonymously – from the European Commission itself.

A late February report in Macedonia’s Dnevnik daily quoted an unnamed EC official as saying that the EC would recommend a starting date for EU accession talks next autumn if elections went peacefully and Macedonia completed required reforms.

The same source said the "name issue" would not hinder the European Commission to recommend a date for start of entry talks.

"There should be no doubt that the recommendation for start of EU entry talks depends on reform process, not on the name dispute, which is a bilateral issue. Hence, if Macedonia shows a democratic maturity at elections and completes the required reforms, I see no reason for the EC to put off its recommendation," the EC official was quoted as saying.

A more direct message came from Brussels on February 23, when the spokesperson for EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn said: "Preparation for the coming elections must pass off in accordance with international standards and to be free and fair. This is a key circumstance for the normal development of relations between EU and Macedonia."

Ivanov, whose party has a pro-EU and pro-Nato stance, announced on February 23 that he had chosen "One for All" as the slogan of his campaign, saying "I want political, ethnical and social consensus for European Atlantic integration to exist in Macedonia.

"Macedonia has to continue working on all necessary reforms, which are clauses for entering European Atlantic structures. Important step is the softening of visa regime.
In the next period our energy will be pointed to get date for starting negotiations for accession in EU. Macedonia will continue establishing good relations with its neighbors. Partner relations with all country neighbors have to be basis for overcoming all of the existing problems," Ivanov told a news conference, according to a report by Bulgarian news agency Focus.

However much candidates may talk about European integration and other issues, the leading point of friction is likely to be the "name dispute". UN-brokered negotiations between Athens and Skopje are not expected to resume in any earnestness before the second half of June, after Macedonia’s elections and after Greece goes to the polls in the early June European Parliament elections.

A report by news agency Mina claimed that Frckovski had said that he would accept the country being called "North Macedonia", a compromise that Greek foreign minister Dora Bakoyannis reportedly has indicated would be acceptable to Athens.

Ivanov has said that the "North Macedonia" proposal, made by UN mediator Matthew Nimetz, was the "worst" yet and not worth considering.

In saying this, Ivanov has aligned himself with his party leader Gruevski, who has taken a hard line on the issue and has found himself at odds, at least strategically, with outgoing president Crvenkovski.