Comebacks and debutants

The group of the parties relying on a big comeback is presented by the Blue Coalition and the National Movement for Stability and Progress, a.k.a. "king’s party".

The centre-right Blue Coalition consists of the two main shipwrecks of the once mighty Union of the Democratic Forces – the reformist anti-communist opposition of the early transition.

There is the smaller, but more homogeneous and tightly knit (to the extent of being dubbed a "sect") Democrats for Strong Bulgaria of former Prime Minister and former UDF leader Ivan Kostov and the larger but more fragile Union of Democratic Forces.

Though the parties basically used to loathe each other, they’ve managed to come together winning reputable 7.95 per cent at the EP elections – a far cry from the two to three per cent support for each party before joined forces for a coalition.

The party of the formerly royal and formerly charismatic king Simeon managed to pull an incredible 7.96 per cent of votes in the EP election, far above the one to three per cent that the opinion polls previously suggested.

The results were largely due to the highly popular European Commissioner Meglena Kouneva, who led the party list and literally drew the party from the brink.

But it is unclear whether the magic can be repeated again (unless, as alleged, the MRF gives a helping hand again with a few votes).

The NMSP, despite being part of the governing coalition, was often at odds with the other two partners and tried to distance itself as "intra-coalition" opposition.

The debutant group is represented by the LIDER (Liberal Initiative for Democratic European Development) and the Order, Law and Justice parties. They are both relatively new parties and a symptom (although not the inventors per se) of the changing nature of politics in Bulgaria.

LIDER was established and is run by Bulgarian tycoon Hristo Kovachki, who has extensive political connections and is considered very close to the MRF party. Both his business and political practices are allegedly rather controversial, including the mass application of "corporate vote", i.e. "persuading" his workers to vote for him.

The Order, Law and Justice party of Yane Yanev has an interesting career, raising many eyebrows along the way. After being an agrarian for some years, Yanev reinvented himself as a conservative, legitimised by closer ties with the British Tories.

The BSP Interior Minister Mihail Mikov has claimed that Yanev is "a product of the secret services and unsatisfied business interests (sic)".

While this cannot be corroborated, Yanev has managed to quickly gain significant support by his anti-corruption rhetoric and has substantial chances to enter Parliament.

Both Lider and OLJ are self-described centre-right parties. But trying to predict coalition patterns based on some "ideological affiliations" can be misleading because there are other factors and relations at work.

Also, the sudden abundance of new "centre right" and the conclusion that Bulgarians are centre-right minded falls short, as there is enough evidence that many left-wing voters (and candidates) are attracted by GERB or Ataka. Probably a plausible, if very simplistic explanation is that the BSP is too mighty and no one wants to mess with it by stepping in its territory.

More than meets the eye: possible combinations?
GERB and BSP are the two centers of gravity and everyone will be dancing around them.

Given recent history of the 2005 elections when an improbable at first sight coalition (i.e. the current governing one) was formed, now the combinations are much more numerous depending on the results and the consequent bargaining. No one should be excluded a priory from calculations – including Ataka and MRF – even if they stand out for now as the most unwanted partners.

It is not very clear where the NMSP stands – it has many similarities and affinities with the centre right – but it is also due a few favours to its former coalition partners of BSP and especially MRF.

This gives it quite a favourable position and may be part of any configuration – be it on the GERB and centre-right or with a BSP-led one.

There are several scenarios based on a larger number – up to nine - parties entering Parliament.

But again, these are very tentative scenarios as just few seats can make huge difference in parties’ partner preferences. It may be the case that a party supports a given government coalition without joining it directly.

"Me, myself and GERB" is the desired, but highly improbable plan of Sofia mayor Boiko Borissov, who reiterated aversion of any coalition arrangements that will tie his hands and wants GERB-only government;

 "EPP dream team" is GERB plus the Blue Coalition, all members of the European People’s Party. But while the Blue Coalition were repeatedly rebuffed by Borissov (but not rejected), the hopes are vested on EPP brokered arrangement after the elections. There is an increasing probability that NMSP will join the EPP members as a third partner, provided that Borissov never burned the bridges to Simeon and that their policy positions are similar to those of the Blue Coalition. There is also the possibility of GERB and/or the Blue Coalition drawing Ataka or OLJ, but then the scenario will be neither "EPP" nor "dream team".

 "The dynamic duo" scenario includes BSP and MRF managing to take the upper hand and govern together or with the help of the smaller parties gravitating around them – the current partner NMSP the OLJ or LIDER and depending on the choice the influence in the
coalition will be tilted either to BSP (if OLJ is chosen) or to MRF (if LIDER is chosen), but it will not make that much difference. For the record, MRF is not particularly liked among BSP voters and he makes his best to be unpopular, e.g. by recently proclaiming himself "the
instrument that allocates the portions of financing in the state".

 "Grand coalition for national salvation" is a very likely possibility, very much discussed, but it may be messy. Ahmed Dogan, whose "prognoses" are often outlines of his own plans, opted for a big, shaky coalition, which will crumble in less than a year to give way for the real thing. Just in 2005, the BSP, MRF and Simeon’s NMSP entered into at first sight improbable for the casual voter coalition, brokered by President Purvanov – who by all accounts might also intervene again. As the 2005 coalition was in the name of "EU membership", this will be a "anti-crisis, national consensus" one.

The scenario may be acceptable to some extend if put on firmer grounds and with clear limits and commitments of the partners. But it will be highly undesirable if it is too big and heterogeneous and as a result lacking accountability and unmanageable.

An "expert government" may be some sub-scenario, but while tempting at first sight, the scenario is undesired as the political responsibility of "experts" will be even more diluted or missing.