Policy implications for the anti-crisis response

The economic crisis has been the backdrop of the elections but it has only indirectly informed voters’ preferences.

The competing messages are stability vs change – and it is up to the voters to decide what they find more reassuring. Two of the governing parties – BSP and MRF - are banking very much on "you don’t change horses in midstream" message about stability and predictability, warning that change and reform will be dangerous in precarious times.

The opposition parties’ message is the need to change the government, which will endanger the country at a time of crisis.

A centre-right government of GERB or/and the Blue Coalition will have – well, a centre-right policy.

They will lead an austerity policy, sign an arrangement with the IMF. GERB has just recently managed to fill a huge gap – human capacity and especially the lack of a strong economic team – by signing the support of Simeon Djankov, a world level World Bank Senior Economist and creator of the Doing Business survey (assuming he will play more than an advisory role).

Among the ideas that may be promoted by such team is a robust structural reform in healthcare and education, using the crisis context as a springboard, not pretext to bloat them for another couple of decades.

The BSP’s current anti-crisis plan combines social protection, maintenance of jobs and massive public investments. While not particularly bad on paper, it has been criticised for risking low efficiency of the investments if they go into the wrong hands as well as stopping short of bolder measures to prevent, not react to the crisis.

The government also indulged in some pre-election spending, instead of embracing austerity measures. Also on the eve of elections, the BSP has shied from its mostly liberal economic policies, denounced any IMF deal and emphasised once again its "social" side to appeal with its left-wing support base of pensioners and lower income village and small-town dwellers. But after all, there are elections to be won and the aftermath reality might dictate otherwise.

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Marin Lessenski is a policy analyst with the European Policies Initiative (EuPI) of OSI-Sofia. This policy brief is commissioned by the European Policies Initiative (EuPI) of the Open Society Institute – Sofia.
The policy brief series is a product of the European Policies Initiative (EuPI), aimed at providing independent expert commentary and analysis on key issues on EU’s new member states agenda.
The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Open Society Institute –Sofia.
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© 2009, Open Society Institute – Sofia

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