Even for a country lumbering from one politic crisis into another, the current standoff between president Traian Basescu and his critics in parliament is probing new depths.
Basescu, the former ship captain, appears intent on keelhauling his opponents, thwarting their attempts to have their favourite nominated for prime minister.

The scramble to form a new government has given the incumbent president, who stands for election to win a second term, the ammunition he needed to boost his flagging public approval ratings.

Basescu has refused to nominate Klaus Johannis, the mayor of Sibiu, who has the backing of a loose coalition in parliament. The three parties, which banded together over their opposition to Basescu, have the needed number of seats in parliament to invest the government or block it.

Basescu’s first nominee, central bank adviser Lucian Croitoru, was rejected by the two chambers of parliament on November 4. Two days later, Basescu nominated Liviu Negoita, the mayor of one of Bucharest’s six districts. Each time, Basescu designated a nominee that met the description of a good prime minister made by political parties, but not their man.

The president’s obvious intention is to draw out the process until after the presidential elections, scheduled for November 22, with a likely run-off to be held on December 6.
In the meantime, the government of Emil Boc, which in October became the first to lose a motion of no confidence in parliament since the fall of communism, remains in office on a caretaker basis.

"The political elites know that until we know the name of the next president, nothing serious will happen in Romania, everything will be just part of the campaign," local analyst Mircea Marian wrote in an editorial in Evenimentul Zilei daily.

"It would have been an honest move for all parties to accept Basescu’s suggestion, that Boc’s government stays on as an interim cabinet until after the elections. It is an emasculated government as it stands, which cannot do more harm than it has already done," he wrote.

Sultans of spin
Basescu’s two main rivals are Mircea Geoana and Crin Antonescu, the leaders of the Social Democrat and National-Liberal parties, respectively. With the presidency on the line, neither appears willing to be seen as co-operating with Basescu on any issue, for fear of losing any support in the tight race.

The incumbent is widely expected to take one of the two spots on the run-off ballot, but the name of his opponent is far from certain. Geoana appears to be the likeliest candidate for the other spot.

Despite some poll evidence that Geoana’s approval rating was lower than his party’s, no presidential election since the first post-communist one in 1990 was decided in the first round and each run-off always featured a representative of the Social Democrat party (or any of its previous incarnations).

One survey by polling agency Insomar, commissioned by cable news channel Realitatea TV and made public on November 10, put Geoana at the top with 32 per cent in the first round versus Basescu’s 31 per cent. Antonescu ranked third with 18 per cent.

Asked to choose between the three front-runners, respondents gave Geoana a slim win over either of his opponents, while Antonescu would also defeat Basescu in a run-off.
Antonescu’s National-Liberal party, however, has accused polling agencies of bias, commissioning its own survey from Gallup, which gave Basescu the lead with 32.5 per cent, while Geoana and Antonescu were even at 21.5 per cent each.

Gallup’s poll gave Antonescu the edge over Basescu in a run-off, while a run-off between Geoana and Basescu was too close to call.

Bad timing
The political merry-go-round comes at the worst time possible for Romania’s economy, which landed hard after recording the highest growth rate in the European Union in 2008.
Bucharest agreed a $26.5 billion bailout with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the EU in May, agreeing to public administration reforms and government spending cuts in exchange for the money needed to cover the bulging budget deficit.

The current political uncertainty, however, has prompted the IMF to withdraw its mission, which was due to assess the state of Romania’s economy and compliance with the terms of the bailout deal. The head of the Fund’s mission, Jeffrey Franks, said that the mission was ready to return and complete its mandate as soon as the political storm blew over.

The IMF expects Romania to miss its budget deficit target because of the late implementation of key reforms and insufficient spending cuts.
In a bid to minimise any further delays, the two chambers of parliament passed on November 10 and 11 amendments that would allow the interim cabinet to draft and table a budget bill, but the timeline for its adoption remains sketchy.

Central bank governor Mugur Isarescu said on November 11 that the 2010 budget should focus on further spending cuts and increasing investment, without raising taxes, which would hurt the economic recovery.

The IMF forecast Romania’s economy would shrink by between 7.5 and eight per cent in 2009, but would recover to post modest growth in 2010.