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The once and future Emerging Europe

Fri, Jan 08 2010 10:00 CET 79051 Views 4 Comments
The once and future Emerging Europe

TIME OF TRIAL: Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic in court in The Hague in November 2009. Prospects for European integration of the Western Balkans include the arrest and prosecution of war criminals from the time of the conflicts that followed the breakup of the former Yugoslavia.

The once and future Emerging Europe

BACKHAND DELIVERY: Czech president Vaclav Klaus played a winning game in getting his demands met as a precondition for signing the EU’s Lisbon Treaty.

The once and future Emerging Europe

THE KOSOVO SAGA: Former UN mediator Martti Ahtisaari was feted in Pristina, where president Fatmir Sejdiu conferred Kosovo’s highest honour on him, but Serbia and its allies continued their determined battle in court and on the diplomatic front against recognition of Kosovo as independent. 


The once and future Emerging Europe

BY ANY OTHER NAME: The election as Greece’s prime minister of George Papandreou, seen with UN mediator Matthew Nimetz, raised hopes of progress towards resolution of the long-standing dispute of the use of the name ‘Macedonia’. But the beginning of 2010 saw Skopje and Athens maintaining their standoff.

Photo: Pasok

The once and future Emerging Europe

CHAOS IN CHISINAU: Ire at electoral irregularities brought anti-Communist protesters out in the streets in Moldova’s capital in April. 

The once and future Emerging Europe

H1N1: The countries of Central and Eastern Europe were hit as the H1N1 virus, previously commonly known as Swine Flu, swept through, leaving deaths in its wake, a scramble for vaccines, and – as in the case at a school in Sofia – the wearing of masks in an attempt to ward off the ailment.


Photo: Georgi Kozhouharov

The once and future Emerging Europe

KEY DIALOGUE: US president Barack Obama in talks with Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, having identified Ankara as a vital player in the future of the region.


The once and future Emerging Europe

A CLOSE-RUN THING: Romanian president Traian Basescu held on to his job, but began 2010 with his country facing serious challenges in seeking to build economic and political stability.


Those seeking sunshine news about Central and Eastern Europe probably would highlight the expansion of the euro zone and of Nato, the removal of Schengen visa requirements for some countries, the successful conduct of elections in at least some countries, the fact that most economies did not fare quite as badly as had been forecast and, not forgetting where we are, the start of the trial of a high-profile war crimes suspect.

If you like, the fact that the outcome of the Lisbon Treaty saga was decided in the region, thanks to the holdout by Czech Republic president Vaclav Klaus, may be added; CEE also got its first high-profile EU job when Jerzy Buzek became President of the European Parliament.

For all that, the economic crisis maintained a grim hold on the region and notwithstanding all the end-of-year stated optimism about a return to significant growth in 2010 in several CEE countries, many economies had been pushed back severely.

Elections produced changes of governments, notably in Greece, or descended into complex sagas that threatened to defy resolution, as in Romania and Moldova. The Czech Republic ended in caretaker hands while in other countries, such as Hungary, the writing seemed to be on the wall for the incumbents.

Albania
With Croatia, Albania joined Nato on April 1 2009, and on December 16, the European Commission agreed to accept Albania’s membership application.
However, the June elections won by prime minister Sali Berisha’s Democratic Party produced a boycott of parliament by the opposition socialists, who claimed election fraud.

Off a very low base, Albania achieved economic growth, but somewhat more moderate than in recent years.

Bosnia and Herzegovina
The EU and the United States sought to help out Bosnia and Herzegovina as it lay in a political quagmire in which its constituent communities, of Bosniaks, Croats and Serbs, could not achieve consensus on any major issue. Failure to make progress in Bosnia and Herzegovina kept the country from making even the slightest progress towards EU integration or Nato membership.

In a year bleak of hope for the state to begin any meaningful steps towards genuine independence, there was just one small, largely symbolic step towards normalisation – the restoration in December, after close to 17 years, of the rail link between Belgrade and Sarajevo, severed during the wars in the former Yugoslavia.

Croatia
The achievement of a political agreement on ending its border dispute with Slovenia, and the acknowledgement given by Brussels to Croatia’s efforts to co-operate with The Hague tribunal on the former Yugoslavia, were highlights for Croatia in 2009 - apart from a change of prime minister - and the country seemed on track to make serious progress in EU membership negotiations.

However, on the economic front, the IMF estimated that Croatia’s GDP would have dropped by 5.2 per cent year-on-year by the end of 2009, a gloomier forecast than earlier. Many reforms, including to the judiciary, remained outstanding.

The Czech Republic
Prague might prefer its role in the European Union in 2009 to be remembered for the launch of the Eastern Partnership in May with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, but it will be other associations for which 2009 will be remembered.

During the Czech presidency of the EU, Mirek Topolanek’s government fell, leaving a caretaker government headed by Jan Fischer in place, with Topolanek next making the news when photographs emerged of him, unclothed and in a state of arousal while surrounded by scantily-clad young women at an Italian villa. This latter episode, however, was no real trauma compared to the tense drama as Czech president Vaclav Klaus held out against signing the Lisbon Treaty until his demands for an opt-out on the rights charter were met.

The irony of this was deepened by the Czech Republic having pledged to get ratification of Lisbon completed by the time of the end of its presidency of the EU.
Like other CEE countries, the Czech Republic heard from the Obama administration that the Bush-era plan for a "missile shield" was being substantially revised by Washington.

On the economic front, with strong financial sector supervision in place, the Czech Republic was among CEE countries that – like Poland – weathered the storm better than others. However, it headed into 2010 with a record-high budget deficit, which will be more than double the accepted EU limit of three per cent of GDP, raising the risk of European Commission intervention.

Greece
Prime minister George Papandreou’s government heads into 2010 facing a public debt expected to reach more than 120 per cent of GDP. Papandreou leads a country that, by the end of 2009, was being mentioned along with Dubai as one of the ranking unpleasant surprises of the year on the economic front. Greek voters ousted Costas Karamanlis’s centre-right New Democracy party to give socialist leader Papandreou stewardship of the country, with the new government getting an austerity budget through parliament.

The raft of economic problems includes widespread tax evasion, another issue on which Papandreou has promised action. Even without an economic crisis, Papandreou would have had his hands full, with top foreign policy issues from Turkey – its EU candidacy, the Cyprus question, the long-standing air space dispute – to the dispute between Athens and Skopje about the use of the name Macedonia (see below).
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Comments

Anonymous Epaminondas Fri, May 13 2011 19:28 CET

Greece has rather more basic problems to deal with than the "Macedonian name issue" - like national backruptcy and a possible return to civil war. Get real, Athens - or, as the old Greeks put it "gnwthi sauton".

Anonymous 1 Fri, Feb 26 2010 20:29 CET

get your facts right and besides if greece wants to realy hurt fyrom all they have to do is stop doing business with them even though greece has these economic problems it is still the top invester in fyrom so you see it is not greece causing the problem it is the slavo -bulgarians in fyrom who are ashamed of their true heritage and are trying to steal the greek culture but than again if i could become part of a glorious heritage and i can call it Macedonian i 'd be crazy not to try and steal it [...]

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Anonymous Peter Thu, Jan 28 2010 22:59 CET

Well, the alternate FM of Greece Droutsas finaly has no objections to allow the Republic of Macedonia into NATO as long as Macedonia enters by FYROM.Was it not in 2008 Macedonia did attemp to join NATO by FYROM.There is a catch to this,provided that Macedonia withdrew the ICJ complaint.Finaly, Greece recognised one very importent reason,and that is;they did break the 1995 UN brockered agreement.Republic of Macedonia does not have to negotiate its constitutional name. No other independent State had to go through this proccess.Under the Human Rights,you declair your identity as you feel.

Anonymous Ron in Sofia Sat, Jan 09 2010 13:43 CET

A really comprehensive summary. Well done!


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