The most serious crisis the tripartite coalition Government has experienced since it was formed in 2005, has come down to one simple question: to what extent ruling partner the National Movement for Stability and Progress (NMSP) would be punished for not supporting Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev on April 11, when Parliament rejected a no confidence motion.

It was no surprise that the no confidence motion was rejected. The surprise was the way the three ruling parties behaved in Parliament. Out of the 240-seat Parliament, a total of 117 MPs from the two ruling parties, Stanishev’s Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and the Movement For Rights and Freedoms (MRF), rejected the motion, with the opposition’s 82 MPs supporting it. The problem was that, for the first time, the 35 MPs of the third coalition partner NMSP abstained from voting.

The reason for this, according to NMSP floor leader Plamen Molov, was the row surrounding the Interior Ministry that eventually led to Interior Minister Roumen Petkov’s resignation. During the debates, NMSP MPs tried to act as  constructive critics of their two partners, but at the same time the party did its best to distinguish itself from the BSP and the MRF. 

Although the Government survived its fifth no confidence vote, viewers of Bulgarian National Television (BNT) saw an upset Stanishev talking to MPs a minute after the vote.
“I will initiate a conversation about serious changes in the ruling coalition in terms of personnel changes because we need clear political support so that we don’t spend the last year of the term limping. If there is a problem in the coalition, it should be solved internally,” Stanishev said. He described the MRF as a reliable and predictable partner. As for the NMSP, he said “obviously the election campaign for next year’s elections has already started”.

His words were interpreted by both media and political analysts as a response to the NMSP’s lack of support. Predictably, it prompted speculation about limiting the NMSP’s share of Cabinet seats. According to the coalition agreement signed in August 2005, the BSP has eight Cabinet seats, the NMSP five and the MRF three, and so far all major decisions have been made at meetings of the three parties' leaders in the coalition council.

Stanishev's  further statements showed that this routine was not exactly to his taste any more. On April 15 he said, “there should be more dynamics in the Government’s work,” reported BTA news agency. He said that the changes should become a fact by the Orthodox Christian Easter (April 28).

Stanishev said that Petkov’s resignation was not going to be the only change in the Government. He said that changes were going to spread to deputy ministers and regional governors, which are currently distributed among the three parties according to the an 8:5:3 formula. The “predictable and reliable” partner, the MRF, sent a message in support of the changes. “All is possible. The three-party coalition can easily become a two-party coalition,” MRF deputy chairperson and Disaster Management Minister Emel Etem was quoted as saying by BNT the same day.

Stanishev received strong support from President Georgi Purvanov, who was Stanishev’s predecessor as BSP leader. Speaking from Egypt, where Purvanov was on a state visit, he said “if changes don’t happen in the next few days, nothing good lays ahead for this Government.”

On April 15, Stanishev met with the BSP executive bureau. He left no doubt about how he was going to use NMSP’s “treachery”.

Since the day the Government was formed in 2005, the debate on public spending has been a key point of discussion between BSP and NMSP ministers. Calling themselves liberals, NMSP ministers have always tried to cool BSP enthusiasm in terms of  spending more out of the budget surplus for social welfare and pensions. By this, the NMSP has tried to become the party working in the interest of Bulgarian business.

Keeping in mind the BSP’s experience with the country’s finances in 1995-97 when Bulgaria suffered a devastating economic and political crisis, Stanishev has always supported NMSP’s position to the dislike of Social and Labour Policy Minister Emilia Maslarova, a popular BSP politician. Now, a year and three months before the next general election, Stanishev found in the NMSP’s behaviour a reason to change his position.    

“From now on, social policy will be the leading line of the Government and all state institutions,” he told the news conference after the meeting. “Social policy is not a priority solely for the Social and Labour Ministry, and both Government and ruling coalition are in people’s debt in this sense”.

The Government had achieved a lot in terms of easing Bulgarian business and now it was time for the business to make serious social commitments he said. Pensioners, students and young people, in general, were going to be the Government’s priority from now on.  

He shared thoughts on the first serious structural change in the Cabinet. “A minister will be delegated the right of controlling EU funds spending,” he said without revealing further details. 

Later in the day, Stanishev met with BSP Sofia unit, where he told the crowd that NMSP’s behaviour was “a mistake”.

However, he left some room for manoeuvre by saying that all changes in the Government will be discussed by the coalition council. “BSP has a working group ready to discuss the changes,” he said. 

On April 16, the people in the working group became known. Surprisingly, one of the names was Roumen Petkov, who was included in his capacity of chief secretary on BSP’s coalition policy.  

The other two names were Ivelin  Nikolov and Evgenii Ouzounov, both on BSP’s executive bureau. The group even had its first session on April 16. Nikolov told Focus news agency that they have sent invitations to MRF and NMSP for coming forward with suggestions for the changes, and negotiations could start by the end of the current week.  What BSP was hoping for was for an annex to be signed to the 2005 coalition agreement which would have allowed the changes in the coalition. 

April 16 was the day when NMSP finally came forward with an official position on the issue of Cabinet changes.  “So far we haven’t received an invitation to participate in any negotiations,” Molov told BTA. “We are expecting to receive such an invitation and than we will form our working group.” He described internal communication in the coalition as “very good” and said that the NMSP was going to be invited for talks “when it is needed”.

Referring to Stanishev’s statements, he said that any change in the coalition agreement was a very dangerous thing. He hoped that the BSP and the MRF were not going to ask for such change.

As mentioned above, Molov was NMSP’s voice in Parliament on April 11 when he stated the party’s lack of support for Petkov. Asked about his opinion on Petkov’s presence in the BSP working group, Molov said it did not bother him . “The NMSP’s highest priority has always been the condition of Bulgarian state, not personalities,” he said.