Some of the Government politicians who went to Bansko on the weekend of May 10 and 11 to come up with new social, health and law enforcement policies for Bulgaria may have the opportunity to return to the resort at length in winter 2009, because they may be out of a job.
The proposals that emerged, especially on the social policy front, have an air of electioneering about them. In the current atmosphere, with the political stunts being performed by both Government and opposition, it is clear that the first steps in the long haul to the next parliamentary election are being taken.
The opposition did not have to devote much effort to pointedly poo-pooing the ruling coalition’s ideas. The right-wing minority Union of Democratic Forces sighed that most of the worthwhile ideas being proposed for implementation by this Government had been lifted from it in the first place. Boiko Borissov, who on the basis of the most recent municipal elections sees himself as the heir-apparent to national power in Bulgaria, murmured something to the effect that it did not really matter what ideas the tripartite coalition came up with at this point, because its days were numbered.
Of course, the one strategic advantage, from a selfish political perspective, is that in coming up with ideas that include some palatable to those of left-wing tendencies while others are more closely associated with right-wing policies, is that the current coalition leaves its rivals with little new to say or to offer.
However, one of the coalition’s vulnerabilities is that, however worthwhile some ideas may sound, especially to those among the electorate who may benefit from an eased burden, it is questionable how much time the current Government will have to implement these ideas, or for any real benefit to be felt. This vulnerability is compounded by an increasing cost of living, which could swiftly negate any benefits, and people who feel that life in Bulgaria is hitting their pockets harder may not be inclined to coolly consider the arithmetic of benefits bestowed by Government against a tight squeeze from, for example, food inflation and rising fuel costs.
However, all of these factors cannot be taken in isolation from the searing criticism of Bulgaria emanating from the European Commission. Apart from the principle that it is a good thing in itself to adhere to EC rules regarding the use of funds and other European rules of governance, to drop the ball would mean that the Government could face penalties not only from EC headquarters but also from a citizenry that has not got the benefit of European support. This is, of course, to leave aside the fact that after the expiry of the June 16 deadline set by the EC for Bulgaria to do something meaningful about compliance with European Union rules, there will probably be yet another ritual combat display in the form of a motion of no confidence. Short of some political cataclysm, this motion, like its numerous predecessors of recent months, will fail in the face of the governing coalition’s parliamentary majority. The only real risk to all concerned is that as the spectacle in Parliament plays out, with Government apologia and opposition spleen, the electorate will respond more with disinterest and disillusion than with indignation.
Whatever happens, especially if matters become somewhat more dire because of European penalties, it is clear that the crossfire of a marathon election campaign has started. Elections during or before summer next year are approaching, and the only question is about at what pace time will pass before that point is reached.
