Bulgaria has stenuously denied that its recognition of Kosovo last week resulted from international pressure, but it is easy to see the reasoning behind such claims. The European Union and United States, allegedly, were pressing Serbia’s neighbours into officially recognising Kosovo. They did so to generate a second wave of acceptance that would undermine Belgrade’s resolute refusal to acknowledge the province’s secession, given that it can scarcely afford to alienate its neighbours after more than a decade of intermittent tension in the region.

In Croatia, which has little love for Serbia after an independence war lasting four years, the debate earlier this month saw critics accuse the government of toeing the EU line and hiding behind Brussels. However, with talks on EU membership ongoing and the possibility of a Nato invitation on the cards at the alliance’s summit in early April in Bucharest, Zagreb had little room for manoeuvre.

Not so Hungary, which is already a member of the EU and Nato. Budapest is now facing a delicate balancing act considering its recent efforts to strengthen ties with Russia, which has backed Serbia to the hilt on the Kosovo issue. Last month, prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsany signed up to join the South Stream project, despite criticism of the deal’s lack of transparency and its clash with the EU-backed rival Nabucco pipeline. Bulgaria and Serbia have also joined the venture, which will pump Russian gas to Western Europe on completion.

Budapest is also concerned about the sizeable Hungarian minority in Serbia’s Vojvodina province, estimated at about 300 000 people, diplomatic sources said, as quoted by Reuters.

The trio became the first countries in South East Europe to recognise Kosovo’s secession, beyond predictable moves by Slovenia, which now holds the rotating six-month presidency of the EU, and Albania. Naturally, this was met with joy in Pristina, with Kosovo’s deputy prime minister Hajredin Kuci declaring it sent a clear signal to Belgrade. “It’s very good for the Serbian perception and the people of Serbia that our neighbours recognise the new reality and support regional co-operation and EU integration,” he said, as quoted by Reuters.

Macedonia, eager to join Nato and the EU, is likely to follow suit, now that an Albanian minority party has returned to the coalition government. Yet this still excludes three countries from the consensus Kuci would like to see, proof that Belgrade is far from isolated in the region.

 Leaving aside Bosnia and Herzegovina, where the issue is not even under discussion for fear of re-igniting the conflict that resulted in the precarious status quo set out in the Dayton Agreement, Romania and Greece have hitherto shown no sign of recognising Kosovo in the near future.

Greek foreign minister Dora Bakoyannis, visiting Tirana last week, said that Kosovo’s recognition was still on the agenda and stressed the importance of “preserving peace and stability in the region”.  Perhaps diplomatically, however, she did not specify whether that meant recognising the province. Given traditionally close ties between Athens and Belgrade, that would seem unlikely.

Romania went one step further. Its parliament immediately adopted a motion condemning the unilateral declaration of independence. This was backed by all parties in the legislature, save for the abstention of an ethnic Hungarian party. Since then, its position has changed little, with foreign minister Adrian Cioroianu saying it was the correct decision and that Bucharest had never waivered in its opinion on the issue. The Romanian capital will host Nato’s summit next week and Kosovo will undoubtedly be one of the hottest topics on the agenda, unless last-hour negotiations between Macedonia and Greece on the former Yugoslav republic’s name eclipse it.

The alliance is effectively acting as the enforcer of United Nations rule in the province through its Kosovo Force (KFOR). It has struggled recently with containing violence in the northern part, populated heavily by Serbs, who have succeeded in taking over a UN courthouse temporarily. Most of the troops are European, including those despatched by Serbia’s neighbours.

The Nato summit may pile more pressure on Romania and Greece but it appears unlikely that they will capitulate if any is indeed applied.

For more news from South Eastern Europe, visit sofiaecho.com