When on February 17 Kosovo announced its secession from Serbia to become an independent state, it was clear to everyone that the consequences would be far-reaching.

Few, however, could have guessed that within less than a month, Belgrade would be left without a government and facing two months of hard campaigning ahead of a crucial snap poll bound to determine the future of the country. And determine it for a long time to come.

On March 8, Serbian prime minister, moderate nationalist Vojislav Kostunica, at the time heading the ruling coalition of his own Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS), pro-European president Boris Tadic’s Democratic Party (DS) and technocrat G17 Plus party, announced his resignation after failing to come to terms with his partners over Serbia’s relations with the European Union. While Kostunica inisted that there could be no Serbia-EU dialogue given that a big part of the bloc’s members recognised Kosovo, Tadic, although also dedicated to winning back what had until recently been a southern Serbian province, remained firm that the country’s EU integration could not be sacrificed.

The reason for the dissolution of the government inevitably became the main issue facing the Serbian people. It was foreign minister Vuk Jeremic of the DS that best defined the elections as a referendum on Serbia’s EU future. From the very appointing of the snap general polls for May 11 (to match the local elections earlier set for the same date), the for-or-against-the-EU topic became the leading theme of the campaigning.

The DS, together with partners G17 Plus, have managed to gather five more smaller parties around their pro-Western pre-election coalition. They stand by the position that Serbia’s prosperity lies nowhere outside the EU. The DSS, in coalition with New Serbia, strongly opposes any ties with the EU as long as most of its members recognise the Kosovar republic. It favours expanding the country’s relations with Russia, which has from the very beginning strongly backed Serbia in its implacable opposition to Kosovo independence. The nationalist right-wing Serbian Radical Party, which won the most seats in parliament in the 2007 elections, shares the DSS view. Since its head Vojislav Seselj is currently on trial for war crimes in the Hague, the Serbian Radical Party is now led by its deputy head Tomislav Nikolic, who at the beginning of 2008 lost the presidential elections to Boris Tadic by a slim margin.

The election campaign reached its climax last week, after on April 29 the EU greenlighted the signing of a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with Serbia and president Tadic, deputy prime minister Bozidar Djelic and foreign minister Vuk Jeremic sealed the deal in Luxembourg. Although the signing of the SAA and its future implementation was tied in to Serbia’s full co-operation with the Hague war crimes tribunal, it was a step that brought the Balkan country closer to the EU. And it was a step that the EU knew well when to offer so as to demonstrate its support for the pro-Western Serbian election contenders.

It was also a step that infuriated the nationalists. “We are telling Boris Tadic that his autograph is not Serbia’s signature but that he is putting his party’s Judas’ seal on Solana’s deal,” Andrija Mladenovic, the spokesperson for DSS told Serbian Tanjug news agency.

The Russians, however, would not just stand and watch the EU boosting its Serbian allies just 10 days before the elections. Just as in an old-time Cold War scenario, they were quick to respond to the bloc’s SAA move. On May 4, outgoing Russian president and prime minister-to-be Vladimir Putin sent a letter to Vojislav Kostunica reaffirming his support. “I count on the deepening co-operation between the Democratic Party of Serbia, which you lead, and which maintains a partnership with United Russia (Putin’s party)... Such inter-party co-operation will contribute to the further development of Russian-Serbian ties, which we have managed to raise to a quality level in recent years,” Putin wrote, as quoted by Balkan Insight.

So, along with the inner rivalries among the contending parties, the race for Serbia between the EU and Russia became the other plot line growing increasingly tangible in the last days of the election campaign. The next move from the European bloc came on May 6, when 16 of its member states, plus Norway, which is not an EU member but is part of the Schengen area, decided to grant free visas to Serbian citizens.

Meanwhile, it was confirmed that on May 9 the outgoing Serbian government would meet to adopt a crucial energy deal with Russia, sealed in Moscow in January, and pass it on to parliament for ratification. The agreement had been rejected several times before by the DS and G17 Plus ministers, but now Tadic said his people were ready to approve it. However, the deal would not be confirmed before the convening of the new parliament, Tanjug reported, as quoted by Serbian broadcaster B92.

With the election date coming closer and polls showing that no party or coalition can single-handedly win enough seats in parliament to form a government of its own, there is speculation about what coalitions the candidates will form after the elections. Balkan Insight reported on May 5 that, according to a survey by Serbian Strategic Marketing agency, the Radical Party came first, supported by 33.2 per cent of the polled. Close behind was Tadic’s pro-European coalition with 31.5 per cent, with the gap separating it from the radicals becoming narrower as compared to earlier surveys. Kostunica’s coalition came third with 13.8 per cent, which, most experts consider, grants it the status of a government king-maker. Kostunica can enter in coalition either with the radicals or with Tadic, the latter scenario more difficult to believe given the recent wrangles between the two former governing partners. However, other coalitions are also possible, as Serbian media recently suggested Tadic’s democrats may have turned to the Socialists for help.