The tension that has been piling up in the country for months regarding the future of Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development (AK) party is soon to either fade away or burst into an explosion of political instability as Turkey’s top court is expected to come out with its ruling on whether to disband the AK within the next two weeks.

On July 22, Turkey’s constitutional court announced that it would start debates on the case on July 28. Although the constitutional judges declined to give an exact deadline for when the verdict to would come out, media and analysts speculated that the case could well be over by the end of July. Other suggestions pointed at August 1 or 8.

“We will continue the debates non stop starting on July 28, and we will work to conclude [the case] as soon as possible,” Osman Paksut, deputy chairman of the court, told Anatolian Agency, as quoted by daily Hurriyet.
The case was initiated in March by the country’s chief prosecutor, who requested the closure of the AK for undermining the secular foundations of the Turkish state and that 71 of its members, among which prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in person, as well as president Abdullah Gul, be banned from political activity for five years.

The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the case in Turkey has had its negative impact on the state’s economy. Recording a 2.8 per cent drop of share prices on the Istanbul stock exchange on July 22, the Financial Times wrote: “While much of the market’s recent decline is due to international factors, the closure threat against the AK party has added to the pessimistic mood among investors.”

Back in June, Turkey’s constitutional judges overturned the constitutional amendments Erdogan’s government adopted in February to allow Muslim women to wear headscarves in universities. Reinstating the headscarf ban was seen by many as an indication of how the court will rule on the case against the AK.

The report on the merits of the case, however, recommended the party not be disbanded. The outcome, therefore, remains vague. “Although the report on the merits of the case increased expectations that the party would not be closed, it is important to note that the court had ruled against the report in a series of controversial cases,” Hurriyet said.

On one side, the judiciary and the military, who see themselves guardians of Turkish secularism, have long voiced their concern of Erdogan gradually increasing Islam’s role in Turkey’s political life, even though that is prohibited by Turkish constitution. On the other, attempts to thwart this perceived agenda have been criticised as undemocratic. There is also fear among some analysts that should AK be thrown out of power, reforms that have brought Turkey unprecedented economic growth would slow down.