WITH the June 25 parliamentary elections just two weeks away, passions in political circles continue to rise.
Party leaders and candidate MPs are on the stump through the country, visiting various towns and villages to open various things - from stretches of road to dairy production lines and computer rooms or to attend groundbreakings for roads and buildings.
While National Movement Simeon II (NMSII) candidate, and well-known actor, Kosta Tsonev was drinking coffee with students in Sliven, Interior Ministry chief secretary Boiko Borissov (also of the NMSII) was bestowing autographs on various body parts and visited several kindergartens in the Plovdiv region where he enjoyed poetic recitals devoted to him and urged the children to tell their grandmothers to vote for him.
The floods in various parts of the country attracted the attention of candidates who did not miss the opportunity to visit the affected areas and be seen talking to the rescuers.
Prime Minister and NMSII leader Simeon Saxe-Coburg gave an interview to the 24 Chassa daily in which he said that his party would not enter into a coalition with the left-wing Coalition for Bulgaria.
Saxe-Coburg labelled reports that the NMSII would go into coalition with the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) a "manipulation" and said that his party would not support a left-wing government.
This was welcomed by right-wing parties, which have been strident in their opposition to a possible BSP-NMSII government.
Union of Democratic Forces (UDF) leader Nadezhda Mihailova said that Saxe-Coburg's statement was "encouraging".
The campaign headquarters of the UDF-led coalition, the United Democratic Forces (UtDF), said that they would stop broadcasts of a television advertisement in which Saxe-Coburg is shown morphing into BSP leader Sergei Stanishev.
Later, however, Lyuben Dilov Jnr, the leader of the Gergyovden movement - also a member of the UtDF coalition - said that it had been planned that broadcasting of the advertisement would cease this week, and this had nothing to do with Saxe-Coburg's statement.
The leader of the Democrats for Strong Bulgaria (DSB), Ivan Kostov, said that Saxe-Coburg's statement was a sign of weakness.
According to Kostov, the statement that the NMSII would not support a BSP-led government did not mean anything.
"He did not say that if the BSP gave its mandate to him, he would refuse to form a government," Kostov said.
A DSB candidate in Bourgas, political scientist Svetoslav Malinov, said in an interview with the Mediapool information site that Saxe-Coburg was trying to steal votes from the right-wing parties. Malinnov said that the NMSII and the BSP were already ruling the country together.
In an interview with bTV, BSP deputy leader Rumen Ovcharov said that Saxe-Coburg's statement was a tactical move by the NMSII, which apparently had decided that its campaign tactics were inadequate.
Meanwhile, a poll by Alpha Research, covering 1007 people and conducted between May 29 and June 3, showed that the possibility of a left-of-centre cabinet was backed by 42 to 44 per cent of those interviewed, and a right-of-centre one by 37 to 39 per cent.
About 60 per cent of BSP supporters said they were for an all-left government.
The idea of an all-right cabinet was backed mostly by two-thirds of DSB supporters and 55 per cent of UtDF supporters.
The distribution of seats in the future cabinet will depend mostly on seven per cent of undecided voters.
These are mostly people who cast their votes for the UtDF or the NMSII.
Surveys in recent months show gradual mobilisation of potential voters. The share of people saying they will definitely go to the polls has increased from 46 per cent in January to 61 per cent in early June.
It is mostly the groups of the youngest, the unemployed and the people with lowest income who have decided not to vote.
According to Alpha Research, the Bulgarian People's Union (BPU) and DSB will pass the four per cent threshold for eligibility to enter Parliament.
They would get 5.2 per cent and 4.9 per cent, respectively.
The chances of BSP to have an absolute majority will increase if a smaller number of parties are represented in Parliament.
The BSP was supported by 40 per cent of those polled, while the NMSII held the level of support it had in May, 21 to 22 per cent. Support for the UtDF was at 11 to 12 per cent. The Movement for Rights and Freedoms had seven to eight per cent support.
A poll by the MBMD polling agency showed that the Coalition for Bulgaria would win 38 per cent of the vote and the NMSII 23.1 per cent if turnout on June 25 was 65 per cent.
In the event of such a turnout, the other major parties and coalitions would get, as follows: UtDF 11.6 per cent, MRF 8.8 per cent, BPU 5.9 per cent, DSB 3.8 per cent, Ataka (Attack) Coalition 2.7 per cent, and Novoto Vreme 2.6 per cent, MBMD director Mira Yanova said.
These percentages of the vote translate into 103 to 104 seats for the Coalition for Bulgaria, 63 to 64 seats for the NMSII, 32 seats for the UtDF, 24 seats for the MRF and 16 seats for the BPU.
"The margin between the Coalition for Bulgaria and the NMSII is most likely to stay until the elections," Yanova said.
If the turnout is about 50 per cent, DSB and Ataka could cross the four per cent threshold.
However, if the turnout is 60 per cent, Kostov's DSB is unlikely to win seats.